Field Data Analysis
Reliability analysis of subsea umbilical monitoring data to support risk based integrity management
The Challenge:
Although the client had conducted conventional reliability calculations for their subsea electrical cores, there was significant uncertainty in these reliability forecasts due to the variation in degradation rates already experienced across different cores. The client was keen to utilise insulation resistance monitoring data to better understand any degradation and the individual probability of failure over time and associated failure risk of each core running down from the topsides to the trees and manifolds.
What We Did:
Analysis of monitoring data to determine suitability for advanced reliability modelling together with development of appropriate state-space reliability models for use in our risk based predictive software pRIOriti-AIM. This provided improved visibility on individual core condition together with bespoke probability of failure forecasts for each core over the next 5-year period. The reliability forecasts were then used in conjunction with key client asset integrity management parameters to assess the risk of both future individual and multiple core failures. This will support the client implementing a risk-based approach to any necessary interventions with proactive planning, including spares procurement in advance of component failure, helping to prevent costly prolonged downtime